Midterm elections: a challenge for Trump

The US midterm elections still seem a bit far off, as they are scheduled for November 3, but they have been a recurring topic practically since the beginning of the year because of everything they imply regarding the possibility of a change in the balance of power in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, currently under the control of the Republican Party, to which President Donald Trump belongs.

These elections are held halfway through the presidential term. In the lower house, all 435 seats are up for election, while in the upper house, one-third (33) of the 100 seats are up for election. Unlike representatives, whose term is two years, senators serve six-year terms, with terms staggered in thirds.

In addition, governors are also elected in 36 states, as well as state legislatures, mayoral offices, and judicial positions in various localities.

These elections will determine whether the incumbent president maintains control of both houses or whether the opposition (the Democratic Party this time) wins a majority in one or both, thus shaping the legislative agenda, which has been quite eventful so far in 2026.

If the Democrats win the House of Representatives or the Senate or both, they will be able to chair key committees, with the power to initiate official investigations, subpoena officials, and halt appointments.

In the case of the Senate, they would have the possibility or not of ratifying federal judges, Supreme Court justices and high-ranking cabinet officials, limiting the government's room for maneuver.

Importance. Ricardo Moreno, former Director General for North America at the Venezuelan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, explains that “the main importance of the United States Congress, in addition to drafting and passing laws, is that it has an oversight role over the executive branch and serves as a counterweight to the power of the president.”

He exemplifies this with his powers to approve the annual budget, “hold hearings on matters of interest in both domestic and international policy. Congress can even conduct an impeachment trial and remove the president if there are legal grounds for doing so. Trump, in his first term, faced an impeachment vote that passed in the House of Representatives, but did not obtain the required votes to pass in the Senate.”

The US affairs specialist emphasizes that “a new Congress controlled by Democrats could hinder Trump’s legislative agenda. They could question Secretary of State Marco Rubio on foreign policy and national security matters, given his role as the president’s national security advisor.”

Ricardo Moreno points out that it is common in these types of elections for the president's party to lose control of one or both houses of Congress. “If recent history tells us anything, it is most likely that Trump will lose his majority in the House of Representatives, where the balance of power is 218 to 215, despite his attempts to manipulate the redistricting.”

He warns that “in the Senate, the scenario is more difficult for Democrats to achieve a majority. Currently, Republicans hold a five-seat majority, 52-47; in the November elections, only 33 of the 100 seats will be up for grabs, of which Democrats control 13 and their rivals 20. This means that all 13 of their senators would need to be elected, and they would need to win four additional seats in other states to achieve a 51-seat majority, which is not so easy, although given the political climate, I wouldn't rule out an upset. There are nine states where the election will be very close and will determine who controls the Senate: North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, New Hampshire, Georgia, and Texas. Their results could be decisive.”

The president's difficulties in these elections

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed his discomfort with holding these elections, even going so far as to propose postponing or canceling them.

In a speech to Republican lawmakers in the House of Representatives in January, he asked, “How is it possible that we even have to compete with these people? I won’t say cancel the election; they should cancel the election, because the fake news would say, ‘He wants the election canceled. He’s a dictator.’ They always call me a dictator.”

Analyst Ricardo Moreno points out that Trump faces difficulties in these elections, since “according to most polls his approval rating is between 33 and 35%, even lower than in his first term, and his disapproval rating is between 60 and 62%, much higher.

The main reason for his low popularity and high disapproval rating is the frustration of the average citizen with the high cost of living and fuel. The war against Iran has also negatively impacted his foreign policy approval ratings, and there is discontent within the base of his MAGA movement. The Jeffrey Epstein files have also become a powerful political weapon for the upcoming elections, which Democratic candidates are using in their campaigns.

Chuck Schumer: Republicans know they're at risk

The head of the Democratic Party's Senate caucus, Chuck Schumer, who is considered the most politically influential leader of that party in the legislative arena, has insisted on the risk that President Donald Trump and the Republican Party face in these upcoming elections.

“Donald Trump knows, his party knows, that they are at risk of losing this election in 2026, which is why they are working around the clock to unfairly tip the scales in their favor,” he asserted in his address to the Senate, announcing the creation of the Election Protection Task Force. This task force involves deploying trained personnel as nonpartisan official observers in closely contested Senate races to document potential irregularities or violations of data certification.

In another speech, questioning the Save America Act proposed by the president to require citizens to present identification and proof of citizenship as a prerequisite for voting, he stated: “Donald Trump knows that if the election is fair, he could lose. So, instead of changing his policies, he and the MAGA Republicans want to make it harder for Americans to vote” in the elections scheduled for November 3.