Despite the intense downpours recorded in different urban areas of Venezuela, the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (Inameh) and specialists in the area confirm that the super child phenomenon continues to seriously affect the national territory.
The incongruity is explained by the difference between the intensity of a passing rain and the accumulated monthly rainfall, a scientific indicator that today reflects critical water levels in key agricultural regions such as Guárico and Los Andes.
However, the episodes of intense rain, thunderstorms, and heavy downpours recorded sporadically in different urban areas of the country—such as Caracas, Maracay, Valencia, or Maturín—have led many citizens to question the meteorological reality and to insistently ask themselves if the El Niño phenomenon is really being felt in Venezuela or if it is a false alarm.
The technical response from meteorologists and specialized agencies is categorical and affirmative: the El Niño phenomenon is indeed directly affecting Venezuelan territory. The key to understanding this apparent contradiction lies in learning to differentiate between the momentary intensity of a rain event and the total monthly rainfall accumulated across the country.
The soil influences
One of the most frequent mistakes when analyzing climate dynamics is evaluating the state of the atmosphere through one's window or based on the intensity of a single downpour. El Niño is not a phenomenon that completely extinguishes the clouds, nor does it determine the amount of rain that might fall in a given city in just two or three hours.
The intensity of a sudden, torrential downpour in an urban area is usually determined by local dynamics. Factors such as daytime ground heating, the collision of warm, humid air masses, atmospheric instability characteristic of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or the passage of localized tropical waves can trigger very violent rainfall in a short period. A heavy downpour in Caracas or Maracay that temporarily floods the avenues does not, in any way, negate the presence of the El Niño phenomenon.
The true scientific indicator for measuring and confirming the impact of El Niño is not the force of a lightning strike or the force with which raindrops pound on the roof on a rainy afternoon, but rather the total accumulated rainfall. This means measuring, in a consolidated manner, the amount of water per square meter that falls monthly and annually in each region.
When these historical figures are analyzed and compared with normal averages, the country's balance reveals a clear and widespread water deficit. While there have been isolated and torrential downpours, the total rainfall at the end of the month is significantly below the historical values expected for the Venezuelan rainy season.
There is no permanent drought
This meteorological interpretation fully coincides with the analyses, environmental monitoring reports and official pronouncements of the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (Inameh).
The Venezuelan climate authority has repeatedly emphasized that the presence of the El Niño phenomenon does not imply the absolute eradication of rainfall or the arrival of an immediate desert drought, but rather an anomalous behavior characterized by a moderate or severe reduction in total accumulated precipitation volumes, accompanied by a gradual increase in average air temperatures.
As explained by Inameh specialists in their climate monitoring reports, in a year under the influence of El Niño, clouds continue to form and release water, but the final balance of the winter cycle shows markedly deficient figures.
In practical terms, if a region of the country historically recorded an average of 150 to 200 millimeters of accumulated rainfall during a given month of the winter season, under the influence of El Niño that monthly total can drop to 100 or 120 millimeters. There were rainy days and even heavy downpours, but the volume of water available for reservoirs, rivers, and agricultural soils ultimately proved insufficient.
Additionally, a key technical factor has been highlighted that occurs outside our land borders, but directly affects our climate: the alteration of wind patterns in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean basin and the Caribbean Sea.
El Niño generates greater wind shear (abrupt changes in wind speed and direction at different heights), which acts as a natural brake that hinders the organization and consolidation of tropical waves.
Facts & figures
- Agricultural and water protection. Implement drip irrigation systems, prioritize crops according to water availability, and protect water sources from pollution.
- Fire prevention. Avoid burning vegetation or trash, do not throw cigarette butts or glass in dry areas, and immediately report any sign of fire to the authorities.
