After a brief neutral transition during the months of April and May, the El Niño weather phenomenon has finished consolidating rapidly on the planet, triggering alerts at the highest level.
In anticipation of this event — dubbed a “super kid” — in Venezuela, the Executive made a national call for strict conservation of electricity and water, announcing the activation of a preventive contingency plan that includes adding 4.800 megawatts to thermoelectric generation to counteract the imminent drop in water sources and the excessive increase in temperatures.
The government's warning aligns with the diagnosis of professional meteorologist Luis Vargas, a specialist with 36 years of experience and advisor to the agricultural sector, who points out that climate models confirm that for the last quarter of the year we will face an extremely aggressive event, with the real capacity to become the most intense El Niño in modern records since 1950, even surpassing the records of the historic 2015-2016 episode.
To understand the magnitude of this contingency, it is essential to understand its origin dynamics.
“El Niño is a seasonal climate variable generated by the anomalous warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Despite originating thousands of kilometers from Venezuelan territory, this phenomenon is not limited to a thermal change on the sea surface, but rather triggers a complex interaction with the global atmosphere,” explains the specialist.
It describes how in the Caribbean basin and northern South America, this interaction alters air circulation patterns and severely hinders cloud formation, which directly translates into a marked rainfall deficit and a drastic increase in heat.
“Although El Niño destabilizes the climate pattern of the entire planet, affecting regions as far apart as Australia, Indonesia and Asia, in the American continent its impact shows a markedly bipolar behavior,” he says.
And the rains? In southern South America —including Chile and Argentina— and on the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, heavy and intense rains are generated by the coastal phenomenon; in the north of the continent the situation is diametrically opposed.
He explains that countries like Venezuela and Colombia, along with the Caribbean islands and Central America, will face periods of severe drought. “This same contrast is seen further north, where the southeastern United States experiences excessive rainfall while the Northwest suffers a pronounced water deficit,” he adds.
Vargas says that, in the specific case of Venezuela, meteorological projections indicate that rainfall will gradually decrease in the coming months.
“This situation will become especially critical during the dry period between November and May, which is expected to be extremely pronounced, causing sporadic rainfall to almost completely disappear,” he emphasizes.
Also, between the end of August and September, when the sun is positioned perpendicularly over the national territory, the country will experience severe heat waves.
High temperatures
This scenario of high temperatures and extreme dryness reactivates the alarm about forest and vegetation fires, threatening to repeat or exceed the disastrous figures and fire records registered in the country during the biennium 2023-2024.
“Given this scenario, the response must coordinate state actions with citizen responsibility to mitigate the impacts of a climate variable that, while not new —with 28 El Niño and 27 La Niña episodes since 1950—, demands maximum prevention,” he emphasizes.
The specialist explains that citizens must be the main ones taking action against the phenomenon.
Among the priority actions is the rational and conscious use of electricity and water in homes to preserve reservoirs.
It also recommends protection from direct solar radiation during the hottest weeks, ensuring hydration and protecting children and the elderly from possible heat stroke.
For Vargas, it is essential to make a strong appeal to environmental awareness to avoid burning vegetation or garbage, a practice that in conditions of extreme drought triggers uncontrollable and large-scale forest fires.
The key will lie in coordinated action, early prevention, and citizen awareness.
This situation worries me a lot... my family and I will take the necessary measures and we are still shaken by the earthquake, Almighty God protect us!