Albert Einstein is credited with the statement that “God does not play dice.” The scientist who created the theory of general relativity in 1915 uttered the phrase in a letter to another physicist, Max Born, in 1926. His intention was to express his disagreement with the postulates of quantum mechanics, specifically the principles of uncertainty and probability: Einstein believed that nature was harmonious and followed precise laws.
In 1776, Adam Smith had already proposed the idea of "the invisible hand of the market." In his book The Wealth of Nations He used that metaphorical phrase to refer to the self-regulation of the market. Smith shaped the course of classical economics from that time until the end of the 20th century, through neoliberalism. The central thesis of the metaphor was that market homeostasis resided in the Law of Supply and Demand, the main foundation of the free market.
Both references serve specifically to illustrate the case of Donald Trump Jr., yes, the son of the current US president, and his relationship with the Polymarket betting platform as an example of how new betting platforms, political power, and speculative capital are redefining the democratic process and public ethics in the digital age. But what is Polymarket, and what is its business? Are we witnessing a new form of commodifying politics and war?
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform built on blockchain technology like Ethereum and Polygon. Its business model involves promoting bets on the outcomes of future events using cryptocurrencies, allowing any user to participate, in theory, securely and transparently.
The steps taken by Polymarket and its peers
- Prediction markets: Polymarket allows users to bet money (usually cryptocurrencies like USDC) on the outcome of future events: elections, sports, the economy, celebrities, weather, and much more.
- Market creation: Any user can propose a market by creating a smart contract about an event. Other users buy "shares" that represent different possible outcomes. In theory, these smart contracts guarantee security and transparency in transactions.
- Market resolution: When the event occurs and the result is known, the market settles and those who bet correctly receive the winnings.
From beggar to millionaire
The story of Shayne Coplan, creator of Polymarket, is closely related to a type of story that has been presented ad nauseam by Hollywood productions; essentially, they are based on updating the theme of the fairy tale. Cinderella by Perrault. In 2020, Coplan, a 21-year-old with no money, launched his betting platform from his office in the bathroom of an apartment on the Lower East Side of New York. In November 2024, the FBI raided that apartment, confiscated his cell phone, but didn't file charges, and that was the end of it.
By October 2025, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) will invest $2 billion in his company, Polymarket. In five years, the poor young man went from being a nobody to a top entrepreneur. youngest self-made billionaire on record by BloombergCoplan had created Polymarket with the backing of investors such as Founders Fund (Peter Thiel) and the support of the controversial creator of the Ethereum cryptocurrency, Vitalik Buterin.
Recently, at the close of its Series B (or C) round, Polymarket raised $200 million USD. The round was led by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund and Trump Jr.'s 1789 Capital. Following this fundraising event, Polymarket reached a valuation of $1.000 billion USD.
The gamification of politics and financial markets
The vast market for predicting events, a euphemism for betting, covers everything: whether Lionel Messi will win the Ballon d'Or by beating Cristiano Ronaldo; whether Bitcoin will break the $100.000 barrier; the results of the US elections; results in any sport; which country will win the Miss Universe crown; or, more recently, which person will win the Nobel Peace Prize or whether the US fleet deployed nearly three months ago in the Caribbean will invade Venezuela.
Bets are also placed on economic indicators, market movements, awards in the entertainment industry (Oscars, Grammys, Emmys), scientific discoveries or product launches, and even on celebrity-related events such as divorces, births, and marriages.
Betting platforms
The range of prediction platforms is significant. Among the best known are:
- Intrade was the pioneer in this type of betting market, closed in 2013 by the CFTC The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has been criticized for allowing Americans to trade in prediction markets considered illegal in that country. There were allegations of manipulation in political and sports markets, as well as internal management problems and the disappearance of user funds.
- Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, allowing users to bet on a variety of global events. In 2022, it was fined by the CFTC for operating prediction markets without proper regulation in the US. The platform had to close certain markets and pay a fine. The allegations included suspected money laundering and illegal gambling.
- PredictIt specialized in betting on elections and legislative issues. Also in 2022, the CFTC shut it down in the US for exceeding the limits allowed for these types of markets. The complaints were based on the manipulation of political markets.
- Kalshi, which focuses on economic and political events and is regulated by the CFTC in the US, has faced debates about whether political prediction markets should be considered gambling or financial instruments. The CFTC has delayed approving certain markets (betting), such as those linked to elections, on the grounds that they could facilitate political manipulation.
- Betfair Exchange, whose market includes politics, sports, and entertainment, is under investigation for manipulating sports and political betting, specifically in the UK. In some cases, collusion among bettors to alter odds has been detected. The reasons for the investigations into the platform include betting on sensitive events and money laundering.
- Smarkets is similar to the previous one, with markets on politics, sports, and entertainment events. The allegations are similar to those leveled against Betfair and Smarkets: suspicions of manipulation in sports and political markets, although no large-scale cases have been made public.
The Trump Jr. Case: Power, Capital, and Gambling
In January 2024, it became public knowledge that Donald Trump Jr. had participated in a funding round for Polymarket. Through his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, Trump Jr. invested an amount that specialized websites have reported. While tens of millions of dollars are mentioned, the exact figure is not cited. However, Binance SquareThe news section of the mega trading platform Binance reports Donald Trump Jr.'s purchase of QCEX and his entry into the advisory board of Polymarket.
In theory, Polymarket's advisory board is responsible for monitoring markets and events to ensure their relevance, verifiability, and compliance with legal regulations. It is also tasked with promoting market transparency through established processes and, most importantly, reviewing internal policies to prevent illegal markets or manipulation risks.
One relevant detail is that earlier this year, Trump Jr. joined Kalshi, Polymarket's main rival, as a strategic advisor. Trump's position at Kalshi is paid; it doesn't involve any investment. This suggests that Trump is currently playing it safe by being involved with both sides: Polymarket and Kalshi garnered attention when their users defied traditional pollsters and predicted Donald Trump's victory in the recent election.
Would you invest in a platform where Trump Jr. sits on the advisory board? It seems there's a bit of everything; far from suspecting manipulation through the use of confidential information, some users of these markets perceive it as a guarantee of credibility. The truth is, the fact that a prominent figure linked to the current US president could be connected to a betting house disguised as an offshore company operating in cryptocurrency prediction markets certainly raises suspicions. To grasp the scale of what's happening... marketing In Polymarket smart contracts, it is necessary to list the latest prediction markets that have been offered.
The speculative logic of capitalism, against Maduro and the suspicious Nobel Prize awarded to Machado
Last October, Bloomberg reported that Bets on Polymarket skyrocketed hours before Machado's Nobel Prize: a possible leak is being investigatedThe accusation was accompanied by a statement from Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute. "We take this very seriously," he told Bloomberg by phone, adding, "It appears we have fallen prey to a criminal actor seeking to profit from our information."
The same note reports that a gambler, under the username dirtycupHe bet approximately $70.000 on Machado's victory just hours before the official announcement. This investor, who had opened his account with Polymarket that same month and had never used it for other markets, earned a profit of nearly $30.000, according to data published on the Polymarket website.
We add that in consulting the Polymarket website where the smart contract associated with the event was marketed Nobel Peace Prize 2026María Corina Machado did not appear among the options. The list of 20 individuals and institutions included Donald Trump at the top, but also Benjamin Netanyahu, the late Charlie Kirk, the Pope, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and others. This indicates that it was a true bump Machado's appointment.
Last Thursday, November 27, the news portal The Colombian headlined a note Tensions between the US and Venezuela are shaking up prediction markets and prompting bets on a possible invasion of Maduro in 2025.The article mentions that American users who frequently use these betting platforms predict the possibility that Washington will undertake direct military action on Venezuelan territory before the end of 2025.
The aforementioned event and the resulting prediction market operations would be inconsequential were it not for the fact that the US president's son, Donald Trump Jr., is a shareholder and advisory board member of the prediction market platform Polymarket. It would be naive to think there's no interest in applying the speculative logic of financial capital to politics and military actions, thereby generating substantial profits for bettors.
Already in the last Venezuelan presidential elections, in which President Nicolás Maduro was elected, Polymarket had shown its true colors, because after keeping the decision frozen for several days, and against the rules of the betting which indicated that the result would be taken from the CNE, they declared the right-wing candidate the winner, which caused all kinds of complaints, even from bettors not in favor of Maduro but who had invested money looking at the polls.
What the experts say
Experts in economics and game theory warn that prediction markets can be vulnerable to manipulation attempts, especially when users have incentives to influence the outcome of the event on which bets are placed: deliberate manipulation by political actors with sufficient capital can interfere with the informational signal that markets seek to aggregate.
Data science researchers assert that while prediction markets aggregate collective information, manipulation can reduce the quality and accuracy of predictions. Tomás Schitter and Sergio Abriola, Argentine researchers specializing in computational theory, logic, and artificial intelligence, explain the phenomenon of "performative predictions," where agents may attempt to influence the course of an event to enhance their profits, thus distorting the information aggregated by the market.
Manipulated prediction
Performative predictions refer to forecasts whose utterance directly influences the outcome of the predicted event. Unlike traditional predictions, which anticipate the future without altering it, performative predictions create feedback between what is predicted, who says it, and the actions taken by the actors involved. For example, if Donald Trump Jr. uses his position to disseminate a prediction on Polymarket about the possibility and timing of an invasion of Venezuela, he could modify the perceptions and decisions of the participants, triggering a shift in betting patterns to benefit specific interests or even influence the international political narrative. In this way, the prediction not only describes a future possibility but also contributes to creating that reality.
These types of predictions can be used in a manipulative way if those who make them have privileged information or seek to influence collective behavior for their own benefit, as occurs in cases of use of confidential information in financial markets or information manipulation strategies.
