In recent weeks, the widespread feeling that the Earth is going through an unusual period of intense seismic activity has set off alarm bells in global public opinion.
However, from the perspective of rigorous geoscience, the picture is radically different: the Earth is not registering anomalous or disproportionate behavior; what has changed substantially is social sensitivity and the speed with which information circulates in digital environments.
According to engineer Feliciano De Santis, professor at the Faculty of Engineering of the Central University of Venezuela and president of the Venezuelan Society of Geologists, recent seismic events are part of the usual statistical behavior of Earth's dynamics worldwide.
“Between 200.000 and 400.000 earthquakes occur annually on the planet. This is due to the constant movement of the large number of tectonic plates that collide and slide past each other,” he explains.
The annual distribution of these events follows a well-defined proportional scale in multiples of ten: each year approximately one earthquake of magnitude greater than 8.0 is recorded; between 10 and 20 events that exceed magnitude 7.0 or 7.5; and intervals of 100 to 200 tremors that exceed magnitude 6.0.
The specialist emphasizes that seismicity occurs regularly at virtually all plate boundaries, with the exception of mid-ocean zones, where seismic activity is usually of small magnitude. Therefore, from a strictly geological point of view, there is no extraordinary or abnormal phenomenon at present.
The communication factor.
If the frequency and intensity of earthquakes globally remain within normal parameters, why the perception that we are facing an unprecedented phenomenon? The answer lies primarily in the technological and media spheres.
Today, people are considerably more attentive to mobile applications that notify them of seismic events in real time, while the media amplifies the coverage of any relevant seismic activity in any corner of the globe.
“It’s purely a communications issue. There haven’t been any stronger or weaker earthquakes globally. Since it happened inside our house, we are, of course, currently involved and playing a leading role in the events related to global seismicity,” De Santis points out.
Platforms and institutions such as the Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research or the United States Geological Survey have been monitoring and reporting global seismicity in real time for decades.
However, the ability to detect detailed events depends directly on local instrumentation: dense networks of stations allow the recording of microseisms of magnitude less than 2.0, which go unnoticed in non-instrumented areas.
The certainty of the aftershocks.
In the local context, the earthquake recorded on June 24 did represent a highly significant event.
De Santis points out that this movement tops the list of the most destructive recorded in Venezuela in recent times, bearing important historical and impact similarities with the devastating earthquake of 1812.
Regarding the outlook for the coming days and weeks, the technical projection is categorical: the occurrence of aftershocks will inevitably continue.
“I can say that with absolute certainty. Although earthquakes cannot be predicted, statistics and global experience indicate that aftershocks generally last for more than three months,” asserts the president of the Venezuelan Society of Geologists.
These aftershocks will continue to be recorded on Funvisis seismographs progressively, manifesting with decreasing frequency and magnitude as part of the natural process of geological fault readjustment.
Technical monitoring will continue to record every movement of the geological faults, reminding us of the importance of remaining calm in the months to come.
The specialist concludes the interview by stating that science shows us that the Earth continues its usual course; it is now up to society to transform the current heightened sensitivity into collective-community responsibility, trusting in rigorous data and heeding the recommendations of specialized organizations, which are responsible for the constant monitoring of movements worldwide.
Facts & figures
Continuous monitoring. Between 200.000 and 400.000 earthquakes occur annually worldwide. According to the Venezuelan Society of Geologists, this figure is statistically normal due to the constant movement of tectonic plates. Geological experience shows that after a major event, the frequency and magnitude of earthquakes gradually decrease over the following period.
