Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads in voting intention preferences for the first round of the presidential elections scheduled for October 4, although polling scenarios anticipate a close runoff against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, according to a survey released this Tuesday.
The study conducted by the Real Time Big Data institute places the current president, a representative of the Workers' Party, with 38 percent popular support. In second place is Liberal Party legislator Flávio Bolsonaro, who garners 30 percent of the vote.
The presidential race also includes other figures from the national political spectrum: Augusto Cury, of the Avante party, has eleven percent; Renan Santos, of Missão, has seven percent; Ronaldo Caiado, of the Social Democratic Party, has four percent; and Romeu Zema, of the Novo party, has two percent. The remaining percentage is divided among other minor candidates, three percent blank or invalid votes, and three percent undecided voters.
To win outright in the first round, electoral law requires obtaining an absolute majority of valid votes. If this condition is not met, the two candidates with the most votes will face each other in a runoff election scheduled for October 25.
Runoff scenarios and realignment in the contest
Projections for a possible second round show an absolute technical tie between Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, as both candidates reach forty-four percent of the preferences, accompanied by nine percent of null or blank votes and three percent undecided.
These data reflect a significant narrowing of the margin compared to the polls recorded in July, when the head of the Executive was ahead with forty-five percent compared to forty-two percent for his rival.
The report also details the results of other possible runoff matchups, where Caiado narrowly beats Lula with 45 to 43 percent, while the president beats Zema by 43 to 40 and Santos by 44 to 37 percent.
Legal uncertainty surrounding emerging candidacies
The poll included an alternative scenario for the first round featuring businessman and influencer Pablo Marçal, who formalized his candidacy in August for the Brazilian Labor Renewal Party after gaining prominence in the 2024 São Paulo municipal elections. In this simulation, Lula maintains 38 percent, Flávio Bolsonaro obtains 29 percent, and Marçal receives 3 percent.
However, Marçal's participation remains subject to the decision of the Superior Electoral Court, because he faces a disqualification valid until the year 2032 for previous regulatory violations, so his final qualification is still pending judicial resolution.
The opinion poll was conducted between August 27 and 31 on a sample of two thousand voters distributed throughout the national territory, with a statistical margin of error of two percentage points.
