With one month to go before the midterm elections on November 3, polls in the United States reflect a highly favorable scenario for the Democratic opposition, turning the elections into a tough referendum on the performance of President Donald Trump, whose popularity is weakened amid a complex economic context and discontent over foreign policy factors.
Major national polling and aggregators show a clear surge for the Democratic Party heading into the midterm elections. According to the RealClearPolitics average, Democrats are registering a solid average lead of more than 8 percentage points over Republicans, solidifying a trend of growing popular support for the opposition.
This scenario reflects the accumulated government wear and tear; historically, the party in the White House suffers a heavy punishment in the midterm elections, a dynamic that current polls reaffirm given the drop in support for the Trump administration and its desperate attempt to mobilize the base as if he himself were on the ballot.
The House of Representatives, the most attainable goal
In this context, the Democratic opposition is the undisputed favorite to regain control of the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are up for election. Currently, Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 seats compared to the Democrats' 215, so a moderate shift in the opposition's favor would be enough to change the political makeup of the chamber.
Specialized reports such as those from the Cook Political Report and the analysis of competitive districts indicate that current trends give Democrats real options to gain the additional seats needed.
A shift of this magnitude in the House of Representatives would not only wrest legislative power from the ruling party, but would also give Democrats key tools for oversight and investigation of the Executive branch.
The Senate: a close battle state by state
In the Senate, where 35 seats are up for election, the contest is much more hotly contested, as Democrats face the challenge of wresting at least four seats from Republicans to break their current majority of 53 senators.
However, alarm bells are ringing among conservatives due to the tightening of races in states that previously seemed safe. Recent polls highlight atypical situations in key states like Texas, where the Democratic candidate holds a narrow lead over his Republican rival and Trump ally.
This contraction of traditional margins has forced the president himself to become fully involved in the campaign with emergency rallies in the final stretch, while the opposition tries to simultaneously shield those progressive strongholds that it already controls by a narrow margin.
