According to Graham Allison, the actors choose the best scenario taking into account the consequences, their perception of the probabilities, utilities and the effects of their proposals. Obviously, these conceptions hint at strategies tinged with the rationality of their creator. It includes your ideology and the value you place on the variables you choose and those you reject.
That is, the political scenario does not fail, but the statistic that imposes the play on the client.
In the Venezuelan case, it is obvious that the current political model will be maintained in 2021. Although variants are already announced. Eg liberalities in use of ports that bring products from the United States to Venezuela. Likewise, the Government announces that it supports the incorporation of new economic actors - foreign financers. Especially in the hydrocarbon sector It is still not clear how this novelty should behave in the soul and nerve of a public apparatus that obviously does not perceive itself prepared to make its methods more flexible, in the face of possible new scenarios.
The question arises how far the government, the party and the new Assembly are willing to go to risk their ideas in the experimental way of a necessary pragmatism. What should lead to the terrain of novelty, in this new world of the post-pandemic
Also foresee the claims of these future partners in this field. When, since the nationalization of hydrocarbons, this has been marked, that, in these associations, the associative fee establishes that the majority of the shares are in the hands of the Republic.
It is quite a challenge to define negotiation lines in the next scenario. How should the new associative pattern be agreed? At the same time, consider that the economic situation of the country has the State tied up. Let us consider that its previous strengths have become weaknesses when it comes to making a scenario plan for trading strategies.
Although, it is no less true, that it is not only this variable that must be measured to establish the factor of the power of this player. That he has updated a fortress and has advantages of popular leadership to his credit. And solid mass management already recognized as a factor that increases its power when negotiating. My strengths are the other player's weaknesses. And vice versa. Without a doubt, the players must create their scenarios, and for both, the destabilizing factor of the sanctions and the economic blockade, - requested interference - is going to be equally uncontrollable.
