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My vote and a forecast

At the end of this week we will have elected a new National Assembly that will replace the destructive parliament of Julio Borges and Juan Guaidó, a fluff!

I will vote for the PSUV. Until recently I could think of pressing the button in favor of any card of the Great Patriotic Pole, but no, I will do it for the main governing party, the one that Chávez created. Faced with difficulties, we must close ranks, in any way.

For me, the scenario is essentially the same since 2002, the year of the coup and the oil sabotage: The opposition, led by the US government, was led on the ground by Ambassador Charles Shapiro , who had replaced Donna Hrinak since March 19, remember? The traditional parties, AD, Copei, Proyecto Venezuela, Convergencia, etc., failing, had been replaced by Fedecamaras, CTV, the first Primero Justicia (which came from being an NGO financed by PDVSA), the people of oil, the media of private communication and other expressions of the elite that dominated the country for several decades of the 2001th century. Since the end of XNUMX they had unleashed a savage and unforgiving campaign to overthrow President Chávez ...      

Today, and since 2013, the demonized and attacked leader is Nicolás Maduro, the loyal bodyguard, leader, deputy and foreign minister who, in that order of functions, the leader of the Bolivarian Revolution counted on. 

Before, the US embassy worked in Caracas, now it is in Bogotá. Another big difference is that it is no longer an ambassador who leads the anti-Chavismo: in these years President Trump himself did it, assisted by Almagro from the OAS. The opposition leadership, square with Washington, was in Venezuela until relatively recently; today it is dispersed among the United States, Spain, Colombia and many other countries whose governments have been allies of Washington in the plan against our country.

In these two decades, several individuals and groups have detached themselves from Chavismo, and others have joined. Today, the Communist Party of Venezuela and some former members of the PSUV, PPT, Tupamaro ... created the APR. His campaign has been characterized by a strange and very recent aggressiveness against the Maduro government and the PSUV. They do not direct comments against the proyanki opposition (the abstentionist) or against the one that has registered candidates; on the contrary, with the latter, we see that they coincide in multiple and different communicational spaces. 

The anti-Chavista opposition is divided in these elections, between those who participate and those who do not; and those who participate did not register unitary candidacies. When they were together, in 2015, they obtained more than seven million seven hundred thousand votes, 56,21%, and the majority of seats in the AN. In 2018, following orders from the north, those gathered in the so-called G-4 decided not to present a presidential candidate, abstention reached 53,97% and the sum of all opponents who participated in those elections totaled more than two million eight hundred thousand votes , 31,29%, while President Maduro reached 67,84% of the valid ballots, of which 57,31% were counted in the PSUV box and 3,93% in the Somos Venezuela box ( 61,24% between the two).   

A forecast…

Reviewing figures, everything indicates that next Sunday abstention will exceed 55%.

It will be that day when it is verified how much the popular base of support of the National Government and the GPP has been worn out. The truth is that the attacks lavished by enemies from abroad against our people have been brutal, with the complicity of many sepoys and other criminals inside the borders, and have prevented solving problems that affect everyone's daily life: public services, gasoline, gas. , salaries, essential investments, inflation ... 

This will be a new and very important test for the machinery of Chávez's party, which in its last process, two years ago, had the vote of five and a half million people. Being conservative, and guided by the previous results and the most serious polls, it is probable that for 6-D the right-wing opposition will add between 30 and 35% of the votes; the APR, between 7 and 10%, and the Great Pole exceeds 50%; although, of course, you have to get out 27 ...

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