HomeOpinionDecisive factors of July 28

Decisive factors of July 28

The definition of presidential elections is conditioned by a set of factors that are not necessarily visible to voters and opinion makers.
Not even technically well-prepared surveys can come close to the real result if these conditions are not taken into account.

For example, those who make their estimates based on the population distribution of the last census have a very different picture if they applied exactly the proportionality with which the electoral roll is integrated.

The distribution by age and social class of the census can give you a good trend of the majority opinion climate in the country, but at the same time, these data do not help you to more accurately project the electoral result.

Other variables that surveys study but that are not frequently published are the results that are generated when consulting about the willingness to go to vote among those who say they support one trend or another.

It may happen that sympathy for an option is much higher than the willingness to actually vote on election day, and this, of course, has a decisive impact on the final result.

One thing is the climate of opinion, another thing is sympathy for an option and quite another is the willingness to vote for the option with which one sympathizes.
This is part of the essential work of political parties, electoral campaigns and candidates who, with their performance, must motivate the vote of their supporters and try to convince the undecided to adhere to their proposal.

At this stage of the campaign, there is a theory about the effect that unexpected, shocking or high-impact events can have on public opinion prior to the elections. The famous effect of March 11 in Spain, a terrorist attack that caused the death of 191 people, is said to have changed the correlation of forces three days before the presidential elections in 2004.

Already in Venezuela in 2012, a tragedy occurred a little more than a month before the October 7 elections at the Amuay refinery, Falcón. In 2013, President Nicolás Maduro reported that it was the product of sabotage. Nothing can be ruled out in the campaign.

Public Opinion Specialist.

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