Throughout 2018 we were warning about the negative effects of making the exchange market more flexible / free. We said that this decision would imply a flight of foreign currency, to which they answered us with a question, which currencies have oil revenues fallen? To which we replied that, precisely, if what came in from oil exports was little, with all the more reason it had to be protected. Since then, international reserves have fallen 25%
We also said that, if the decision was already made, the important thing is that the exchange market served so that the private sector had its space to trade currencies and was not whining and blackmailing with the discourse that they had nowhere to buy and sell them, but that they Not at all, in said market the currencies of the State will be offered, that of all Venezuelans, even if they were few. We learned about the foreign exchange auction by the BCV a couple of weeks ago aimed at productive companies. Of course, they have not published how many were auctioned, at what price and who bought, nor have they published the currencies delivered to the private sector since 2014 with their respective names and surnames.
They said that by freeing the exchange market, private foreign investments would enter, we are still waiting for them. We demonstrate with data from the BCV itself, that never, ever, foreign private capitals have brought their currencies to Venezuela, on the contrary, they have taken ours, around 700 billion since the 70s and 350 billion in revolution. It is their best business, to appropriate the oil, but by way of the income it generates. What reasons would there be to think that now they would bring their foreign exchange, in the midst of an economic war?
They also said that as soon as the exchange market was released, it would disappear as if by magic, dolartoday. They affirmed that the "reason for being" of this portal was the fact that there was an exchange control and the exchange rate was set by the BCV, and in view of the distrust of that price, because dolartoday was in charge of publishing "the real one". We insist and insist on innumerable occasions that the criminal portal would not disappear even if they released the exchange market because it is a weapon of economic warfare, the most powerful, by the way.
Even the example of dolarblue and the case of Argentina we show it, and we remind them that despite the fact that Macri raised the exchange rate as the first measure of the government, the dolarblue did not disappear, and it has not disappeared, on the contrary, it remained and continued wreaking havoc. By the way, the Fernández government has just taken measures that point to greater exchange control, in a sensible way they are taking care of international reserves so that they do not leak, especially now in times of pandemic that are so much needed because the economies are at measure march. Instead, we auction them off.
On that occasion we also warned that since the criminal dolartoday would not disappear, what would happen is that it would pull the free market price as it has actually been happening. This already positioned web portal acts on a variable that in economic theory is known as adaptive rational expectations. It publishes a daily exchange rate, although it is not the true price of the bolivar, but it depends on the intensity of the economic war that they instruct from Washington. The economic agents who buy and sell dollars, even if it is a dollar, who have observed a permanent depreciation for years, although induced, expect that this will continue to occur, that is, that it will continue to depreciate. If you have 100 dollars and you need to sell them and that portal publishes that the exchange rate is 400.000 BsS / US $ and in the free exchange market the price is 300.000 BsS / US $, at what price do you sell it? You are going to move towards the higher price, while the buyer will try to acquire it at 300 BsS / US $, a price at which you will not sell it, unless you are in a great hurry. Therefore, in the free exchange market, the supply and demand of currencies will behave in such a way that the price that is set will tend to that of the criminal portal, it will refer to said portal as the rest of the prices of the economy (except that of the labor force). The criminal is pulling the free market price, and the BCV officially publishes the “free” market price.
And here we find ourselves, 3 years later, the criminal dolartoday is still free within the framework of an exchange market that is also "free" while the official is being pulled and subdued by the criminal.
As if that were not enough, the criminal hesitates to the officer. The behavior pattern shows that after large attacks on the bolivar, the exchange rate on these portals falls and then rises again. It generates the effect on domestic prices and induces inflation, which lags up to a month and then hits again. In the meantime, the free market that is being pulled and, therefore, always behind the criminal, takes a long time to arrive, so it reports the changes later. That is why sometimes the official, who is the reflection of the "free market" is above the criminal.
What is the “advantage” of the BCV officially recognizing that exchange rate that “the exchange market” shows? That, for the purposes of State transactions, this is the one that governs, and for example, when PDVSA sells the dollars to the BCV, it is not the same that it does so at the price at which the entire economy is moving (the type of criminal exchange) to do so at a much lower official exchange rate. To be more specific, if PDVSA sells 1000 dollars to the BCV, and the criminal exchange rate is 400.000 BsS / US $ but the official was at 1000, the BCV would give 1.000.000 BsS instead of 400.000.000 and in that In the case of PDVSA, it would have fewer bolivars to cover its commitments, which incidentally refer to the criminal exchange rate, and in the circular economy there would be fewer bolivars as well. As is the example of PDVSA, the rest of the State companies that, although they do not sell foreign currency to the BCV because they do not export, must adhere to an official exchange rate, even if all their suppliers refer to the dolartoday.
The problem is not so much that the officer is being pulled by the criminal and publishes an exchange rate accordingly, that was coming, the problem is that the officer does not recognize, despite all the tests and evidences of these three years including the confession of the intellectual authors in the spokesman of the Republican US Senator, Richard Black, that he is a criminal, a weapon of war, and therefore does not act accordingly.
As long as this is not recognized, orthodox policies will continue to be applied that are not aimed at solving the real problem, which is to stop the attack of imperialism against all the people, Venezuelan, Chavista or not.