On November 21 there will be elections for governors, mayors, regional deputies and councilors throughout the country. The call for these elections It has put into action the political actors, the Government and the opposition, who are preparing to define candidacies and launch themselves into battle for the favor of Venezuelans. It is not for less, because this event could redefine the political map of Venezuela. The opposition could achieve new solid spaces of power and the Government must defend those it possesses. Both political identities face a significant challenge of re-legitimation.
But everything will depend on the capacity of the political organizations to summon the voters. We come from an environment in which an important part of the opposition has maintained an abstentionist campaign for several years, having opted for "non-politics" to try to seize power. In addition, this political crisis is compounded by the economic crisis, which means that people have to dedicate most of their time to settle livelihood, which reduces attention to political issues.
However, the news of the formation of a new CNE, with the incorporation of opposition figures and a more balanced profile, has revitalized the expectations of political actors and voters, as we determined in a UN Data study which showed that 70% think that the new electoral authorities encourage greater participation.
This week we conducted a poll on the intention to vote in the next elections. For the answers we used a Likert scale type design, where the options were: I will certainly vote, it is quite likely that I will vote, I have not decided yet, it is unlikely that I will vote, it is certain that I will not go to vote. So we are measuring the degree of intention or decision that people have regarding going to vote in the regionals at the present moment, six months before the day of the vote.
This digital survey was carried out through the web portal ultimasnoticias.com.ve and the social networks of Últimas Noticias. No sample was selected and participation was free and voluntary. The poll was active between Monday, May 24 and Friday, May 27, and 1.416 unique responses were obtained. We asked participants in which state they vote and then how surely they will vote on November 21. In this way, we obtained a chart of the intention to vote, both nationally and by entity.
The results were the following.
They want to choose
Of the 1.416 participants, 999 people, that is, 70,6% answered that they will certainly go to vote; 10% (142 people) consider it quite probable; 9% (128 people) have not decided yet; 5,1% (72 people) say they are unlikely to vote; and 5,3% (75 people) are sure that they will not vote.
If we group the data, we are talking about 80,6% having some or total intention to vote on November 21, while 9% are undecided and 10,4% have little or no intention of voting.
This paints an encouraging picture for the upcoming regional elections.
Let's see how the behavior is in each of the states:
Attention in Los Andes
The highest and lowest values were found in Andean states. The entity that showed the greatest intention to vote was Táchira, with 91,7% who consider it safe or quite probable that they will vote. And the entity with the lowest record of intention to vote on 21-N was Mérida, with 61%, while negative intentions were located there at 25%.
The state with the highest number of undecided people is Portuguesa, where 21,6% still do not know whether or not they will vote in the regional elections.
We can point out the five states with the greatest intention of participating in the elections: Táchira, Falcón, Carabobo, Apure and Nueva Esparta.
All entities showed a majority positive intention to vote, always above 60%. However, we can highlight the entities that showed the highest volume of negative intentions, compared to the others: Mérida, Amazonas, La Guaira, Lara and Trujillo. In these regions, political actors must pay special attention to encourage voting.
A fact that draws attention is that in the states of Amazonas, Apure and Carabobo there were no undecided among those who responded to our survey. The results were shown to be polar between the security or probability of going to vote and the security and probability of not voting.
This is a base scenario, which can serve to illuminate the configuration of political and electoral strategies. A new poll will have to be carried out on dates closer to the day of the vote, in order to analyze how the political actors, institutions and the course of events will have influenced the electoral mood of Venezuelans.