The Venezuelan economy in 2021, in our view, will depend, among other factors, on: 1) the evolution of covid-19, 2) the intensity of the economic war, 3) the responses given by the government before the attacks Bolivarian.
The 70% decrease in national production between 2013 and 2020 was mainly due to:
1) The blockade of PDVSA that generated a 78% drop in oil exports, affecting the foreign exchange earnings needed to import inputs, raw materials and final consumer goods and, forcing us to draw on our savings (international reserves) that also they have decreased 79% during the same period.
2) The attack on the bolivar. amounting to 1.726.121.979.187% since 2013. By inducing the depreciation of the bolivar, imperialism directly affected production costs, generating an increase in all prices in the economy that have varied 29.795.586.292% since 2013 and with it the pulverization of the real wage by 99%. This drop in purchasing power has implied that households decrease their quantities demanded, for which the producers have closed their doors. The attack on the bolivar also has effects on the financing of the public spending budget, impacting the services provided by the State. It is the most powerful weapon, it has at least four effects: inflation, deterioration in real wages, drop in production, underfunding of the public administration and de facto dollarization.
3) The BCV's decision to cut the amount of real money, which has decreased by 91% since 2013. This monetarist policy has prevented the adjustment of nominal salaries of the public administration, enhancing the negative effects that the attack on the bolivar seeks to deteriorate purchasing power and, in this way, affect the quantities demanded and with it production. This policy has also prevented the guarantee of sufficient financing to the State for the provision of its services, which have deteriorated, contributing to the discourse of imperialism of the supposed need for privatization due to the “inefficiency” of the State. While the National Executive makes great efforts to push the productive engines, imperialism, with the attack on the bolivar, pulls in the opposite direction, taking advantage of the force of inertia allowed by the BCV. This policy, in addition, has freed the passage of the enemy's troops in this unconventional war, the dollar.
Added to the policy of cutting money is that of "flexibilization" of the exchange market, which not only has not contributed to the disappearance of dolartoday, as had been claimed, but foreign investments have not arrived in our country as they had predicted. On the contrary, in a scenario of permanent induced depreciation of the bolivar, it has encouraged the flight of the few currencies that are entering through exports.
4) In 2020, to top it off, covid-19 appeared and was incorporated into the explanatory factors for the drop in production, which in 2020 is estimated to be 20%.
"Change" in the White House. The arrival of Joe Biden to the White House this year 2021 will not imply the cessation of the attack on the bolivar. On the contrary, the Democrats are precisely the main architects and promoters of this weapon because they are the ones who are directly linked to the owners of the Federal Reserve, that is, those who manage the money in the United States. It is not by chance that inflationary phenomena, attempts at dollarization, and dollarization in Our America were registered during the government of Democrat Bill Clinton (1993-2001). Even in Venezuela, according to statements by Steve Hanke, Rafael Caldera's advisor and now dolartoday's advisor, the dollarization decree was ready in 1996.
Joe Biden was not only the vice president of Barack Obama, but also, like all Democratic presidential candidates, was financed by George Soros who is the founder of the Open Society Foundation, a “philanthropic” organization that receives funding from, nothing more and nothing less than the Rothschilds and the Rockefellers, main owners of the Federal Reserve (FED). It was the Rothschilds who said, "Give me control over a nation's money and I won't care who makes its laws."
The Open Society Foundation also funds the Albert Einstein Institute founded by the architect of the color revolutions and the actions of unconventional wars, Gene Sharp, and also funds the International Center for Nonviolent Conflict (Inci) that we remember was, to in turn, the financier of the Javu group. To continue weaving the links, we must say that the Inci was founded by Peter Ackerman who, in addition to being a co-founder of the Albert Einstein Institute with Gene Sharp, was director and is part of the Cato Institute, an advisory body (through one of its main members, Steve Hanke) of the dolartoday portal, a website through which our Bolivar is attacked. As you can see, everything is in the family.
It is probable that with the Biden government there will be a “rapprochement” and a “dialogue”, even a “relaxation” of the economic blockade. In fact, some US spokesmen for the Democratic wing have stated that they are against the “sanctions” against Venezuela, not because they do not share the objective of overthrowing the Bolivarian revolution, but because they consider that these actions victimize us before the effects of other more powerful weapons. , specifically the attack on the bolivar. Just read the tweets of Professor Hanke, we repeat, dolartoday advisor, who, while promoting dollarization in our country, has incessantly criticized Trump for the intensification of "sanctions."
In the framework of an eventual "rapprochement and dialogue", the democrats, with their silent and covert style, will not give up in their attempts to twist our arms with their attack on the bolivar, which works like a tourniquet that they tighten and loosen in search of achieve at least XNUMX non-exclusive objectives: XNUMX) force negotiations that privilege their economic, political and geopolitical interests, that is, to gain our wealth, especially oil and gold; XNUMX) formal dollarization to try to rescue the value of the dollar by screwing it into the economy with the greatest resources on the planet, that is, Venezuela, which would also give it a significant advantage in the unconventional war that the US is waging against China and Russia, XNUMX) overthrowing the Bolivarian revolution and therefore, contain socialism, always with the threat to peace as a card up its sleeve; XNUMX) guaranteeing power in Venezuela, even in exchange for not necessarily having the government.
What imperialism has not finished understanding is that after 500 years of struggle for independence, the Venezuelan people, together with their armed forces, heirs of Guaicaipuro, Bolívar and with Chávez's backpack on their back, will not give in to blackmail. nor to the threats of any empire.
2021 will be one more year of struggle for independence and sovereignty and thus, we Venezuelans will commemorate the Bicentennial of the Battle and Victory of Carabobo. "Fortunately, a handful of free men have often been seen to defeat powerful empires." Simón Bolívar, October 12, 1818.