We are three months away from the regional and local elections in Venezuela. The political parties and groups have entered the final stretch of defining their candidacies and, little by little, the electoral environment is heating up. The PSUV has already announced its proposal for governors and he also did the Democratic Alliance. For its part, Henrique Capriles He said that his group is going to participate and threw his people into the streets, without major protocols. Even the opposition version that had married the "insurrectional route" is now hesitant.
The Dialogue Table installed in Mexico has put on the table the famous "Electoral conditions" that the opposition demands to return to the democratic arena. For its part, the CNE, with its new directive, has served as a catalyst for new spirits by promote trust in the transparency and balance of the Venezuelan electoral system. All this generates expectations about the levels of participation in the event scheduled for November 21.
But the most important thing will be the effective convocation that the political actors achieve over the population, which requires from the leaders a commitment to solving fundamental problems, such as the economy and public services. The numbers of participation and abstention will be as or more important than the results, since they will be a key factor in the construction of public opinion on the legitimacy of the process and of the new political map that is generated.
At the end of maywe conducted a survey on the intention to participate on XNUMX-N and XNUMX% responded positively, divided into XNUMX% who said they were sure of going to vote and XNUMX% who considered it "quite probable".
We decided to ask our audience again and this time measure how are the intentions to vote in the regionals according to the political group with which people identify. That is, how are the spirits between Chavistas, opponents and "ni-ni". We publish a poll in latestnews.com.ve and in our social media accounts, with the following question: "Are you going to vote in the regional elections on November 21?" The options were “Yes, I will vote”, “I have not decided yet” and “I will not vote”. Before, we put a “filter question” to classify the participants by political identity: “What political group do you identify with? Chavismo - Opposition - Neither of the two ”.
Between Monday, August 16 and Thursday, August 19, 5.172 people participated and the results were as follows:
We want to choose
In total terms, that is, without distinguishing by political identity, 71,9% of the participants answered that they are going to vote on November 21. We are talking about 3.719 people out of the 5.172 surveyed. Likewise, 13,3% (792 responses) said that they have not yet decided whether to vote or not and 12,8% (661 responses) affirm that they will not vote in the next elections. This means that we could count on a participation of close to three-quarters of the population entitled to vote. The scenario remains similar to the May poll, increasing the security of going to vote by 1,3 points.
Obviously, everything will depend on the ability of politicians to enthuse and mobilize their constituents.
The fight is fighting
When we look at the data according to the political group, we can get a little closer to the current picture of the intention to vote.
Most impressive, though not surprising, are the Chavistas. 96,3% of those who identified with Chavismo said that they are going to vote on November 21. Only 2,5% are undecided and 1,2% will not vote.
But the group identified with the opposition also showed a good intention to participate: 64,8% said that they are going to vote, 21,8% have not made the decision yet and 13,4% said that they will not. Although there are more abstentionists than in Chavismo, the number of undecided opponents represents a political opportunity for the parties, since if they are convinced they would have a good chance of catching up to the numbers of their opponents.
Now, among the participants who define themselves as “neither-nor” the behavior was more distributed. It is noteworthy that almost half, or 43,4%, said that they are going to vote. This is very interesting because, although these people do not identify with any of the political parties, in the end they will make a decision for one of the candidates and could define results in states or municipalities where the fight is more fierce.
A not inconsiderable percentage of this intermediate group, 29,2%, is still deciding whether or not to vote. That is of utmost importance to the previous consideration. 27,4% of the “neither-nor” is clear that they will not vote, thus constituting the largest abstentionist sector in terms of political identity.
The preliminary conclusion here is that there is a good base with intentions to participate among the voters who usually call "hard vote", both from Chavismo and the opposition, "the first group being the most animated. But the "ni-nini" sector, among which many "ex-chavistas" and "ex-opponents", the so-called "discontents", stands out by showing a good level of electoral spirit, which could approach 50% if political actors play well your chips from here to the day of the vote.
This can be clearly seen in this table with the absolute values of the survey and the proportion of each alternative according to political identity:
We can assume that, as the date approaches and the campaign is developed with names, surnames and faces of the candidates, the scenario will take shape and the undecided will decide, probably favoring participation.