Uncertainty

Can the opposition "win" the regional and local elections on November 21? Is Chavismo "assured" of victory? What will happen from there, "will Venezuela be fixed"? The interesting thing about these questions is that at this point they can all be answered correctly with a yes and a no.

In 1935, Austrian scientist Erwin Shcrödinger designed a thought experiment to illustrate quantum entanglement: locking a cat in a sealed chamber alongside a poison can that could be opened at any time or never opened. The result is the superposition of both states: the cat is both alive and dead, until the box is opened.

The opposition is today, at the same time, at its best and worst. The best because the economic and social crisis has collapsed the political assessment of the Government. It is the clearest opportunity in 20 years to beat Chavismo. And the worst because his own valuation is on the floor. They come from telling their people that the vote was cursed, to now call them to vote. Your base is upset and unmotivated. In addition, as they feel they have a chance, there is a tremendous internal fight to grab the biggest slice of that hypothetical "victory", which increases the Government's chances of winning. To complete it, although they decided to participate, they say that "there are still no conditions." So they could retire earlier or, if they lose, sing fraud.

Chavismo seems to be better. It already has its unique candidates, it has the largest electoral mobilization “machinery”. In addition, the opposition division and the failure of the guaidonada strengthen their position. Compared to 2015, today they are at their “best moment”. However, none of this eliminates the serious situation in the country and its political impact. Its people are also upset and unmotivated by the severity of the crisis, increasing inequalities and the postponement of the promise of "recovery."

For Venezuela to "fix itself", it needs institutional "normalization", political agreements and the lifting of sanctions. The 21-N depends on Mexico and Mexico depends on the 21-N. Nothing is certain at this point.

As in the case of Schrödinger's live / dead cat, only our intervention can collapse the uncertainty. The problem is that here, in reality, the cat is us.

@angelgonzalezvn

 

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