There is approximately one month left until the November 21 elections, when Venezuelans will elect the next governors, mayors, regional deputies and councilors from all over the country. There is a lot of expectation about these elections, for several reasons. Mainly, because it is the first time since October 2017 that the full opposition will participate in an election. It should be remembered that a part of the opposition, the most extreme, chose to boycott the 2018 presidential election and maintained this position until the parliamentary elections of December 2020. Second, this event will feature electoral observation of the European Union, which means an important turn of these countries in their position towards Venezuela, since, also since 2018, they had embarked together with the government of Donald Trump in the plan of ignorance of the Venezuelan institutions and the economic blockade.
Furthermore, the economic crisis may lead to the expectation that people will feel less motivated to vote than on other occasions, posing a challenge for political actors. In the month of July, in Últimas Noticias we conducted a digital survey to ask people what should be the priority of the next governors and mayors. The responses were strongly inclined towards two aspects: economic development and public services.
But one of the data that always draws attention in electoral processes is the level of participation. In the 2017 gubernatorial elections, the turnout percentage was 61,14%. The political and economic conditions at that time were different, so it is interesting to measure how the electoral mood is for November 21.
In the month of May we made a first measurement through the responses of our audience in a digital poll. We obtained that 70% of the participants affirmed to be sure of going to vote, in addition there was a 10% that considered it "quite probable". In that case, the situation in each of the states was reflected. Then in August we checked again and the percentage of participation was located at 72%, we also measured the intention according to the political identities.
We decided to ask the people once again their intention to vote with just over 30 days to go before the vote. As on previous occasions, we placed a digital poll on our web portal and social networks with the question: "Are you going to vote in the regional elections on November 21?" This time we included in the same survey the classification by region and by political identity.
Between Monday, October 11 and Thursday, October 14, 2.049 responses were registered and the results are as follows:
More desire to vote
In the national total, we have that 86,8% affirm that they will vote, which reflects a significant increase compared to previous polls. 8,4% say they have not decided yet and 4,85% are sure they will not attend.
As mentioned above, these elections have specific conditions. On the two previous occasions, the participation of the opposition group represented in the so-called “G4” had not yet been confirmed. This could be an influencing element in the recorded variation.
To better understand this approach, let's see how the intention to participate in 21-N is according to political identity. In the survey we included the question "With which political group do you identify?", So that we could total the records in three groups: Chavismo, opposition and neither of the two.
Several things stand out here. First, Chavismo remains solid with the greatest intention to participate, and the result obtained is very similar to our August survey: in both cases, the Chavista participation is around 96%.
The case of the opposition is different. In August, the intention to vote of those who identified with the opposition was 64,8%. Two months later, the desire to vote rose to 90,3%.
For their part, those who did not identify with either of the two sectors also increased their intention to vote from 43,4% in August to 69,1% in October.
Once again, the elements that distinguish both moments are the confirmation of the participation of the entire opposition and the international electoral observation.
Good cheer across the country
Now, how are these data in each of the states? This information can be very useful for both political actors and analysts and, in general, all of us who are interested in understanding the situation in our country.
In general, the intention to vote is quite high in all entities; however, there are several cases that stand out. In the states of Amazonas and Cojedes, all the people who participated indicated that they will vote, so the positive percentage is 100%. The region where the intention to vote was “lower” is Delta Amacuro, with 75% positive responses, followed by Sucre and Anzoátegui, both with 79%. The same is about high percentages of electoral participation.
Another particular data are the states where there are no undecided, such as Delta Amacuro and Monagas. The entities where there were no negative responses are also striking: Barinas, Nueva Esparta and Yaracuy. There the positive majority was complemented only by people who are still thinking about it.
Now let's see, case by case, how is the intention to vote on November 21 in each state and by political identity. It is necessary to clarify at this point that the levels of intention to vote of each political group should not be read at all as possible electoral results. Each data reflects the proportion of the spirit of participation with respect to the group itself and there is no information on the proportion of people who manifest one or another political identity in each entity. Therefore, we are only measuring spirits and in no case the amount of votes.
In general, Chavismo shows more willingness to participate than the opposition and the "ni-ni". Only in Delta Amacuro, Sucre, La Guaira, Táchira and Carabobo, the percentage of intention to vote of the opponents was the highest. In all these latter cases the difference is very small, except in Delta Amacuro, which reaches 50% and in Sucre, which reaches 15%. @angelgonzalezvn