The left and an authoritarian right will most likely measure their forces in the second round of the Peruvian elections, after the first official counts will confirm Pedro Castillo and Keiko Fujimori as the candidates with the greatest options to reach the ballot.
Castillo, who has burst like a hurricane in this vote, easily leads both the quick count estimates (18,1%) and the actual vote count, which with 11% of the votes counted keeps him in first place with 15,8, XNUMX% of the votes.
With those margins, Castillo, a teacher and leader of a teachers' union, is guaranteed access to the ballot except for a highly unlikely statistical surprise.
The first provisional data also favor Fujimori, who would thus reach an electoral definition for the third time in a row after his failures to come to power in 2011 and 2016.
The official count so far puts the heiress of former president Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000) in fourth place, behind Hernando de Soto and Rafael López Aliaga, but with the nuance that the percentage scrutinized responds only to urban and nearby areas. to the counting centers, far from the Fujimori voting nuclei.
The quick statistical count, more accurate than the initial count, places politics with 14,4%, comfortable with one foot on the ballot.
The unexpected rise of the left
The presence of Castillo in the presidential definition coincides with the estimates that in recent weeks had detected a meteoric and surprising rise of this candidate, whose proposals are from a hard left in the economic field and conservative in the social field.
In an address to his followers from the Plaza de Armas in Tacabamba, he assured after acknowledging the results of this electoral Sunday that "change and the struggle have just begun" in Peru and reaffirmed his commitment to establish an alliance with "the same and true people Peruvian ”to preserve its roots.
“Today the Peruvian people have just removed the blindfold. They have had enough time, decades, but how do they leave the country? You come to Metropolitan Lima, to the big cities, and you find places with opulence that do not look beyond their noses, ”said the candidate.
The trace of a painful past
Fujimori is currently the candidate with the best options to occupy second place against De Soto and Aliaga, although the count may still hold surprises in that regard.
Given the tightness of the count, Fujimori has already stepped up to offer De Soto to “work together” to confront the “radical left” represented by Castillo.
"Beyond the differences we have, there are also great coincidences," said the candidate before noting that between them "it does not matter who goes to the second round. I hope we can work together ”.
The candidate was presented on this occasion with a proposal from the authoritarian right, claiming the presidency of her father, imprisoned for human rights violations and who has already said that he plans to pardon if he reaches the Government Palace, and betting on applying "a strong hand" to solve the problems of Peruvians.
An accusation weighs on Fujimori for the crime of money laundering linked to the alleged illegal financing of his party's campaigns in 2011 and 2016 by the Brazilian company Odebrecht, among others.
A Congress with no clear direction
Meanwhile, the vote for Congress would leave, as planned, a Parliament with up to 11 different political groups, with a vote of between 10,7% and 5,4% of votes, led by Popular Action, the party Yonhy Lescano, the candidate who until a few days ago was the great favorite to reach the second round but who fell by the wayside.
Castillo's Peru Libre would obtain a similar result, followed by the Fujimori movement and the radical right wing of the Popular Renovation of López Aliaga.
In any case, the polls confirm that Peru will have a very dispersed, polarized legislative power and that it will have difficulties coordinating many benches, none of which will have great weight in a chamber made up of 130 deputies.
The result in the polls also indicates that former president Martín Vizcarra (2018-2020) could obtain a place in Congress for the We are Peru party.