Economic Outlook 2021 | Pasqualina Curcio

The behavior of the pandemic and especially the possibility of equitable access to the vaccine will be decisive in the planet's economy for this year that is just beginning. The World Bank says that, according to its accounts and in the worst case scenario, world economic growth of 1,6% will be recorded, after a fall of 4,3% registered in 2020. In the optimistic scenario, the recovery would be of 4%. There are differences between regions and countries, for example, while a reactivation of 3,5% in the US is expected after it fell 3,6% in 2020, in China a growth of economic activity of 7,9% is forecast, that is, 4 times higher than the one registered in 2020, which was 2%.

Beyond the cold GDP figures, according to the WHO, a third wave of the pandemic is expected for the first months of 2021 due to a strain of the virus that they say is 70% more contagious. To date, almost 90 million people in the world have contracted the disease, of which 1.924.000 have died. It is estimated that, in 2020, some 12.000 people died of hunger daily as a result of the effects of the pandemic, more than the daily deaths from the disease itself, which amount to 5.274 (OXFAM). According to the ILO, 400 million jobs were lost and according to OXFAM, the 3.200 billion poor were joined by 500 million more. Meanwhile, the world's rich, or 1% of the population, got richer.

Despite the fact that Covid-19 revealed the resounding failure of the capitalist system in its wildest expression, neoliberalism, we do not foresee a change in this exploitative mode of production, generating inequalities and poverty. On the contrary, the owners of capitals walk in a wave of reinvention, with a speech of return to the Social Welfare State that is nothing other than, within the framework of capitalism, giving greater participation to the State to take care of the issues that the bourgeoisie are not interested in or do not generate great benefits, but that allow the minimum subsistence and reproduction of the working class, necessary for accumulation. In 2020 we were able to observe several popular movements against the system, what we did not see was true leaders who channel these demands of the people.

It seems that in 2021 the decline of the North American empire will accelerate. The world's gendarme has lost more and more space in world geopolitics and geoeconomics. While its economy, indebted and in deficit, contracted in 2020, China's not only grew, but also advanced with technological innovations: Asians created a quantum computer that is 100 billion times faster than the American one, in November they put into orbit the first 6G satellite, and already in 2019 they had landed, for the first time in history, on the dark side of our satellite.

With scarce oil reserves, which barely cover 6 years (OPEC), the US has not only failed to control the spread of the virus, but has also revealed the serious internal economic, political and cultural crisis. The assault on the Capitol is one more symptom of the decadence of a country in which the number of weapons is greater than the number of inhabitants (120 per 100), as are the demonstrations against racism, 40% of whom are poor, the 500.000 indigent who have no shelter, 14% unemployed and stop counting.

While the dollar shows signs of a precipitous decline, gold continues to rise in line with the advance of the Silk Roads through Central Asia, Russia, East Africa, Europe and Southeast Asia. While Republicans and Democrats fought the Oval Office, 14 countries in Asia and the Pacific signed the world's largest trade agreement with China, including the main allies of the United States, that is, Japan, Australia and South Korea. These 15 countries represent 30% of the world's population and production. Trade routes and Agreements that will advance with currencies other than the dollar and payment clearing systems outside the SWIFT historically dominated by the US Federal Reserve.

Thus, the US, as an empire, has been lagging behind economically, energy and technology, not to mention that, in the military, it stopped occupying the first place in terms of the number of nuclear warheads. Russia now ranks first with 6.375 and the US has 5.800. The third place is occupied by China with 320 warheads. On this point, we raise our voices and bet on world nuclear disarmament and compliance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons signed 50 years ago.

In Venezuela. As in the rest of the world, the economy of Venezuela in 2021 will depend on the evolution of Covid-19 and access to the vaccine, to which we must add the intensity of the attacks of imperialism in the framework of the diffuse war and unconventional that under the Monroe and Containment Doctrines they have declared to us since 1999. Our economy in 2021 will also depend on the effectiveness of the responses by the Bolivarian government and the Venezuelan State to such attacks.

Believing that Trump's departure from the White House will imply a rapprochement with the US government to the point that aggressions against the Venezuelan people cease, is to say the least, not only naive but a serious strategic error in the framework of this war . It is not the incumbent presidents who give the order to attack, it is the big corporate, financial and media capitals that feel threatened by the socialist revolutions. From Eisenhower to Trump, the Cuban people have been attacked and blocked for 60 years by 12 presidents.

We do not pretend to be prophets, we do not have access to the Oracle of Delphi, nor will we fall into the irresponsibility of offering numerical estimates of GDP and inflation for two reasons, firstly, because we do not have enough information that allows us to statistically project these economic indicators (the BCV and the INE are not publishing it). Second, because the explanatory and determining variable of what happens with production, exports, prices, wages and unemployment in the Venezuelan economy is the exchange rate of the bolivar with respect to the dollar, whose future magnitudes are impossible to determine. forecast because they respond to political criteria, or rather, of war. Only those who control dolartoday know what the price of the bolivar will be tomorrow. However, we will share aspects that we consider should not be ignored in the construction of possible future economic and therefore political scenarios. We will do it in the next installment.

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