UN data: people perceive that the economy improved in 2021

President Nicolás Maduro has stated on several occasions that the year 2021 is the first in a cycle of recovery for the Venezuelan economy. On December 2, during the swearing-in of Héctor Rodríguez as re-elected governor of Miranda, he said: “This year 2021 is the first year of the economic war that we are going to have positive economic growth… the first year of growth of the real economy, of the economy that produces food, that produces shoes, clothing, growth in trade ”.

Venezuela has gone through a huge crisis, not only economic, but also political and social, whose main characteristic has been the harassment and blockade of our economy by the United States and other foreign powers through the use of unilateral coercive measures (called sanctions). The country has suffered a hyperinflationary cycle since December 2017 and international reserves experienced a serious fall from 29.890 million dollars in December 2012 to 6.175 million dollars in July 2021, according to data from the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).

However, the scene seems to be changing. The BCV also shows that international reserves began to grow in August, as a result of the incorporation in the accounting of the value of Special drawing rights that correspond to the country as part of the measures of the International Monetary Fund to support the fight against the effects of the covid-19 pandemic. It is also reflected in the portal of the monetary entity that inflation has been maintained throughout 2021 below 50%, even reaching 6,8% in October, the lowest figure since April 2015.

Likewise, the oil industry, which reached the critical point of not selling a single barrel of crude in 2020, which seriously affected operating processes, knocking down production, reported in early December a production close to a million barrels per day.

Positive consensus

Jesús Farías, president of the Economy and Finance Commission of the National Assembly, affirmed ago proco, in tune with President Maduro's speech, that the year 2022 will be one of "full and solid recovery of the economy."

For his part, the president of Fedecámaras, Carlos Fernández, also agrees with the President in pointing out the recovery of the economy during 2021. "It was a plane in a dive that took flight reaching the ground," he said. He explained that among the factors of change are the recovery of industrial credit and the strong activity of individual ventures and initiatives. "It is these economic agents, from the smallest jobs, from mini-companies to entrepreneurs," which have driven growth, according to Fernández. Another coincidence with the national government, which on November 10 created the "Entrepreneurship Engine" of the Bolivarian Economic Agenda and a registration system that will serve as "a platform for the integration of all entrepreneurs to boost the country's real economy", such as President Nicolás Maduro pointed out.

Now, how do people, the ordinary citizen, perceive this economic improvement that everyone talks about? There is practically an "analytical consensus" that points to the idea of ​​recovery, but to sound out how the people perceive the situation, we decided to consult our audience through a digital survey on our web portal and social networks.

We asked: "In your perception, do you think that the economic situation of the country in 2021: - It has improved a lot - It has improved a little - It has not improved." We also collected the state of the country from where people responded to the survey, in order to obtain, in addition to the national total, the particular views corresponding to each entity. Between Monday, December 13 and Wednesday, December 15, 1.142 people participated and the results were as follows:

It feels

47% affirmed that the economic situation “has improved a little” in 2021. 16,3% consider that things “have improved a lot” and 36,7% say that “nothing has improved at all. We can say that the biggest piece of the cake feels the movement of the economy, but it is not to exaggerate either. It is important to pay attention to the fact that the second largest piece, also considerable, says that it is not perceiving the improvement.

However, when we polarize the responses between positive and negative statements, we obtain that a resounding 63,3% of the population does agree with the statement that 2021 has been a year of recovery for the Venezuelan economic situation.

Depends on where

It is advisable to take a closer look at this photograph. When we look at the results by state, we can get a better pulse on the national perception of the economy.

Looking at the table with regional data, we realize that the sum of the blue and yellow areas (positive perception) is greater than the red areas (negative perception) in almost all cases. However, we can say that the states where the economic recovery is less felt are Guárico, Trujillo and Táchira. There the perception that the thing "has not improved" reaches more than 50%.

At the opposite extreme we have that Apure, Yaracuy, Anzoátegui and La Guaira register the best perception of economic growth. And La Guaira stands out for having the highest percentage of people who responded that the economy this year "has improved a lot" (41,2%).

Our methodology is based on voluntary surveys, where participants access the instrument through our website and social networks, without any probabilistic criteria. However, these data can be useful, in a preliminary way, when guiding policies and evaluating plans and strategies of public and private management. A first look that leads to more precise and detailed studies. The expectation is great for the year 2022 and it is important to have a fresh and clear vision of the impact that the economic processes underway have on the population.

@angelgonzalezvn

 

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