The Venezuelan economy will close the year on a positive note, boosted by increased production of goods and services for the population, according to the latest data from the Central Bank of Venezuela, which has recorded 18 consecutive quarters of growth, despite external threats to the country.
Economist Elio Córdova Zerpa believes that the country is overcoming the negative effects it experienced during the pandemic years, as well as those it is now suffering as a result of unilateral coercive measures.
“Some speak of the emergence of the resilience economy, the ability to rise to the challenge of the adversity that Venezuelan society is currently facing,” he commented.
He explained that the Venezuelan economy has managed to resume its growth trajectory after experiencing a consecutive decline in gross domestic product from 2013 to 2021, a result of the economic war that began against Venezuela following the death of President Hugo Chávez Frías.
“We are talking about a drop that is estimated at 72%, that is, three-quarters of the economy; so when we hear that we have 18 consecutive quarters of growth, we must contextualize this with the reality that we still have a long way to go to recover the volume or size of the economy of 2013,” he said.
He highlighted the effects of the economic program that the Government implemented in response to this situation to encourage the development of non-oil activities.
“That has yielded very good results, still marginal in economic terms, very small with respect to the level of dependence on oil supply, but it is already paving the way for us to overcome the rentier model,” he exclaimed.
He highlighted the growth in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and the pharmaceutical industry, "which are sectors that have shown significant economic dynamism and have helped to leverage overall economic growth."
In fact, the total value of all goods and services in the country (GDP) for the third quarter of 2025 increased by 8,71% compared to the same period in 2024, according to the BCV report.
Notable growth was seen in oil activity (16,12%) and non-oil activity (6,12%).
“The dynamism of economic activities that has been recorded since the second quarter of 2021 is an indicator of the capacity of the national economy to recover from the adversities derived from international economic instability and the scheme of unilateral aggressions,” the study by the issuing entity states.
Economic growth forecasts, ranging from 6% according to ECLAC to 9% as reported by President Nicolás Maduro himself, are supported by various data collected from the country's actual productive activities: "The results of key macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product, for example, investment volumes within the country, and growth in formal economic activity," the economist commented. Últimas Noticias.
Seeking new sources of foreign currency. The government is promoting an economic policy that will generate an alternative flow of foreign currency to oil revenues, Córdova Zerpa stated.
It is worth remembering that on Tuesday, December 9, the President of the Republic, Nicolás Maduro, announced a unique way to simplify and expedite the procedures for non-traditional exports.
Indeed, this measure, which is expected to be ready in the first quarter of 2026, seeks to unify the control protocols (certification, permits, inspections) for non-oil exports.
As a specific measure, it proposes the creation of a single ticket office and a single procedure for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing the current 105 collections to a simplified process.
“We have found that cocoa, coffee, fish, seafood, crabs, seaweed, and other natural products are very popular in international markets,” he commented.
He explained that these measures seek to boost economic activity, whose numbers indicate that we will close this year with positive figures, generating alternative sources of foreign currency that help overcome the rentier model, that is, the excessive dependence on oil revenues.
“What we need is to combine a strategy that allows us to industrialize these non-oil economic activities and continue positioning ourselves in the Asian, Indian and Middle Eastern markets where doors have opened significantly for us, and generate an alternative flow of foreign currency income to oil revenues,” he emphasized.
In fact, after signing the decree establishing the new protocol for non-oil exports, President Maduro pointed out the importance of leading the country towards a sustainable and diversified economy, prioritizing national production.
“I refuse to continue down the path of dependence on oil revenue. We must accelerate the transition to an autonomous model that generates its own products and has the necessary foreign currency for the perfect stability of the exchange rate system that we have created and that works,” the president stated at the time.
New aggressions affect the economy. Economist Córdova Zerpa notes that the country's economic performance has also fluctuated due to threats and aggressions from imperialist forces.
The most recent was the theft of an oil tanker: a merchant, commercial, civil and private vessel with 1,9 million barrels of oil.
"A cargo ship that was seized in the best style of 18th-century pirates was attacked by US marines, something that violates international law," he warned.
In addition to these direct actions, there are the unilateral measures that are maintained against the country, which force the Government to sell oil at a discount, generating unnecessary losses.
“That discount ranges from -19 to -25, the country is truly receiving 40 dollars per barrel (when at the current price it is around $60) that puts the main source of foreign currency income in difficulty,” he questioned.
This situation makes it necessary to promote non-oil activities to strengthen other sources of foreign exchange for the development of the national economy.
“The issue of sanctions affects us greatly because on the one hand our main source of income is the sale of oil, but on the other hand, in order for the national productive sector to produce, it must acquire raw materials from the rest of the world, which is what we call intermediate consumer goods and capital goods, that is, technologies,” he said.
This is another reason to encourage and support domestic production of goods and services.
“It is a good option at this time to create conditions for those national or international private individuals who have capital and wish to invest in the territory,” he commented.
Increased national production. Córdova Zerpa highlighted that the Government's commitment to increasing the production of goods and services in the country has yielded encouraging results.
“Another very important element in this stage of economic growth is that around 90% of what Venezuelans consume is being produced in Venezuela. This is thanks to a policy of developing non-traditional production, which is yielding positive results,” he said.
He emphasized that this national policy seeks to rescue and strengthen what has been done in Venezuela.
“When you go to the supermarket, most of the sugar, rice, grains, precooked corn flour, and other essential goods for national consumption are produced in Venezuelan territory,” he added.
On this matter, President Nicolás Maduro explained that one of the goals in 2026 is to produce 100% of what is consumed in the country in order to stop depending on exports.
“To produce all goods in Venezuela (…) to live off our efforts, our capabilities,” he stressed during his program Con Maduro +.
He also instructed that exports be increased to higher levels and that mechanisms for accessing major global markets be facilitated. Furthermore, he called for maintaining harmonious growth alongside the democratization and expansion of credit.
As part of these efforts, economist Córdova Zerpa highlighted the issue of entrepreneurship, which has also been an important way to encourage non-oil national production.
"It is a public policy as a response to this suffocating situation in which we have been placed as a result of not aligning ourselves with hegemonic interests, generating real conditions so that all those actors in the economy who wish to produce have tools and that is expressed in a growth in production."
Outlook for the coming year. Economist Córdova Zerpa mentioned the need to accelerate the development of special economic zones as a way to develop the territory. “Also to generate integration of physical spaces within Venezuela and to promote integration processes among our countries at the Latin American level,” he stated.
He commented that one must remain calm despite the urgency of concrete results in all the economic actions that are being carried out.
“We must remember that we operate in the field of social sciences and there is no pill or recipe that will solve this overnight; it is a medium and long-term strategy where we are progressively recovering capabilities,” he added.
In this scenario, the Government presented a budget for the coming year of five trillion 22.968 billion bolivars, of which 77,8% has been allocated to social investment.
Similarly, an increase in hydrocarbon production is expected to reach up to 1,2 million barrels of oil per day.
Recently, the Minister of Hydrocarbons, Delcy Rodríguez, offered a positive assessment of economic growth in 2025.
In the energy sector, he pointed out that there is evidence of "a clear process of recovery of oil production through our own efforts," with an increase in barrels of oil of 18,6% in twelve months, a figure that includes condensates and gas liquids.
On that occasion, he reported that the petrochemical industry experienced a growth of 4%.
“That means it is a sector that is emotionally engaged, as demonstrated by its almost 17% contribution to the growth of the gross domestic product,” he added.
Rodríguez, who is also the Vice President of the Republic, recently highlighted the promising future for the Venezuelan oil industry, which is currently expanding.
He highlighted that the projection for oil and gas demand, from now until 2050, estimates a growth of 23% according to specialized centers in the field.
The statement was made during his speech, via streaming, at the International Energy Forum held in Russia.
“Today we know that OPEC plus accounts for 56% of the demand for crude oil without liquids, and that OPEC in turn has 43% of world production and 81% of the world's oil reserves,” he said.
By the numbers
According to the Central Bank of Venezuela, the economy grew by 8,71% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the third quarter of 2024.
Oil activity grew by 16,12% and non-oil activity by 6,12%.
As for non-oil activities, the largest expansions were the following: 16,40% in construction; 9,35% in transport and storage; 8,98% in manufacturing; 8,19% in trade and vehicle repair; 7,08% in mining; 6,89% in electricity and water; 6,78% in accommodation and food services; 6,60% in real estate, professional, scientific, technical, administrative and support activities; and 6,11% in agriculture.
In hydrocarbons: An increase in barrels of oil of 18,6% in twelve months, a figure that includes condensates and gas liquids.
This Saturday, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez announced that PDVSA had achieved its target of 1.2000.000 million barrels of crude oil per day for this year. This achievement sets new goals for 2026, aimed at increasing production and ensuring a stable crude oil supply.
