OPEC forecasts that the world will consume 106,52 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2026.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) estimated this Wednesday that global crude oil consumption will reach 106,52 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2026, representing a increase of 1,31% compared to 2025.

The forecast is based on "stable and robust" global economic growth, which the Vienna-based organization estimates at 3% for this year and 3,1% for 2026.

Stability in the projections

OPEC kept its 2025 demand estimate unchanged at 105,14 million barrels per day (mbd), 1,25% higher than in 2024.

The cartel argues that the reduction of trade tensions, following agreements between the United States and partners such as the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Japan, as well as the year-long truce with China, have fostered a more stable environment.

The report also notes that private consumption and public spending on infrastructure and defense in Europe and Japan will be factors that sustain economic growth over the next two years.

Risks and warnings

Despite the optimism, OPEC warns of challenges that could affect the global economy:

• Business problems still exist.
• The prolonged shutdown of the US government.
• The yield on US debt
• Geopolitical tensions in different regions.

Demand distribution

• The United States will remain the largest consumer in 2026, accounting for 20% of the global total.
• China and India will lead demand growth, driven by higher incomes, household consumption and government spending in a low inflation environment.
• Europe will barely increase its consumption by 0,2% in 2025 and 0,3% in 2026, with declines in the use of diesel and heavy fuel oil due to weak industrial activity and environmental policies.

Production and supply

OPEC slightly lowered its demand for crude oil from its member and allied countries (OPEC+), setting it at 42 million barrels per day (mbd) for 2026, which will represent about 40% of the global market.

• In October, the 12 OPEC countries produced 28,4 mbd, while together with ten other allies they reached 43 mbd.
• Russia increased its production by 47.000 barrels per day between September and October, a 0,5% increase.
• In Latin America, extraction will grow by 5,7%, with Brazil increasing its production by 200.000 barrels per day to an average of 4,5 million barrels per day in 2026.

The role of OPEC+

OPEC and its allies, including Russia, maintain a key role in balancing the global energy market.

With control of nearly 40% of the global supply, its production decisions and quota adjustments have a direct impact on international crude oil prices and on the economic stability of producing and consuming countries.