This is the third article in the reflection that ended up being a three-part series; Part I, “Vital Hybrid Bankruptcy,” sets out the general situation; in Part II, “Fragile Bubbles of Reality,” the panorama of converging global risks is completed by adding those caused directly by human beings in the social, geopolitical, technological, and economic spheres.
In this third part, we need to reflect on what to do to avoid, mitigate, or adapt to the "Effects of Imminent Collapse."
After more than three decades of international summits to address the issue of climate change, specifically global warming induced by human activity, progress has been slow, and we are getting closer to the point of no return of 2,5°C of average annual temperature.
The EU27 and nine countries are responsible for 70% of GHG emissions
The percentage share of GHG emissions is: China with 29,2%, the United States with 11,11%, India with 8,22%, the EU27 with 5,95%, Russia with 4,84%, Indonesia with 2,48%, Brazil with 2,1%, Japan with 1,99%, Iran with 1,98% and Saudi Arabia with 1,58%.
“China, the United States, India, the EU27, Russia, and Indonesia were the world’s largest emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG) in 2024. Together, they account for 51,4% of the world’s population, 62,5% of global GDP, 64,2% of global fossil fuel consumption, and 61,8% of global GHG emissions.” EDGAR Report 2025
Brazil and Mexico, which are among the 20 largest emitters of greenhouse gases, with 2,44% and 1,29% respectively, account for more than half of all emissions from the region of "Here America." However, when the emission percentages of the next 10 largest emitting countries in the region are added together, the emissions are equivalent to those of the EU27. Twelve countries emit the same amount as the 27 countries. The situation in the region is not good; urgent measures must be taken. (Ibid)
Global GHG emissions only decreased in 2020, which may have been due to the pandemic. (Ibid)
All those cats also hunt mice and they don't seem to have any intention of becoming vegetarians or taking any action.
Adaptation and mitigation
It has been intentionally placed in that order of priority and attention, although leaders, executives and those who direct and make decisions have postponed the global environmental risks for their short and long-term consideration, even though the anthropogenic effects of global warming are already being felt, nature is warning.
Criticisms of the funding goals and conditions give an idea of where the priorities have been directed:
33% of reported public climate finance (2019-2020) was for adaptation, while 59% was for mitigation. (2023, Oxfam)
Exactly one-quarter of reported public climate finance is subsidy, mostly in the form of loans, the majority of which are non-concessional (i.e., they do not represent the best deal obtainable in the market). (Ibid)
In other words, in practice, financing schemes do not demonstrate a commitment to or a change in attitude regarding the seriousness of the situation. The focus is on business, on its economic profitability; clean energy and electric vehicles are the epicenter of this business, now diminished by the rise of Artificial Intelligence and the United States' abandonment of all its policies in this area.
Little to no progress has been made in adaptation, and this is where developing economies and island nations are most vulnerable. Also vulnerable are segments of the population from low socioeconomic strata who live in precarious settlements, generally on the outskirts of large cities, and who also lack access to public services such as drinking water and wastewater treatment.
A preliminary step
To frame the proposed course of action, the following points are raised:
Prioritizing environmental or nature-based risks as fundamental means that the anticipated effects will impact all other categories of global risks mentioned above. These could be broadly categorized into three main subcategories: atmospheric, biospheric, and lithospheric.
1.-Lithospheric
Natural disasters that originate and occur directly in the lithosphere are linked to the release of internal energy, the movement of geological faults, or the instability of the terrain.
Natural disasters originating in this layer of the earth are: Earthquakes; Tsunamis (Seismic Waves), which occur when a large earthquake has its epicenter on the ocean floor (especially in subduction zones) and vertically displaces a large mass of water; Volcanic Eruptions; Mass Movements (landslides, avalanches and collapses), which are triggered by earthquakes, eruptions or water saturation; Soil Sinkfalls (subsidence and Sinkholes).
2.-Biospheric
Natural disasters that originate and develop in the biosphere—the layer of Earth where life is sustained and evolves—are those caused by living organisms, ecological processes, or pathogens (viruses, bacteria, prions, or fungi) that massively attack a species. Unlike geological or atmospheric events, these disasters disrupt environmental balance, food chains, or human health due to biological dynamics.
Natural disasters originating in this layer of the earth include: Epidemics and Pandemics, which affect humans but can also affect animals (epizootics), such as avian flu, or attack and destroy plant and forest populations (epiphytes); Biological Pests and Infestations, the explosive proliferation of an animal or plant species (often insects) due to ecological disturbances, absence of predators, or optimal climatic conditions for reproduction; Red Tides (Harmful Algal Blooms – HABs), the accelerated and massive growth of certain phytoplankton microalgae in freshwater or marine bodies, which release potent biological toxins; Biological Invasions (Invasive Alien Species), the accidental or deliberate introduction of a species outside its natural habitat, which spreads aggressively, displacing native species, irreversibly altering food chains, causing the local extinction of endemic biodiversity, and destroying fishing or agricultural economies.
3.-Atmospheric
Natural disasters generated in the atmosphere (meteorological and climatological phenomena) are the result of extreme variations in temperature, air pressure, humidity and wind.
Natural disasters:
On the Earth's surface they are: Tornadoes, Heat Waves and Extreme Cold Waves, Hailstorms and Electrical Storms, Meteorological Droughts, Sand and Dust Storms.
On the ocean surface: Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes, Typhoons or Cyclones); Waterspouts, Marine Heatwaves (Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction).
These natural disasters, when combined, produce a much greater effect than the sum of their individual effects; they originate in one sphere and their effects occur in others, such as forest fires, where the conditions occur in the atmosphere and the consequences in the biosphere.
Scientists who have studied the collapse of past and present civilizations highlight several aspects of human actions: the management of natural resources—forests, soils, water sources; top-down and bottom-up approaches; and the perspectives and attention given to problems in the short, long, and very long term. All these human management actions have a positive or negative impact on the aforementioned environmental or natural disasters.
Warnings from the IPCC Sixth Report
According to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is a region highly exposed, vulnerable, and severely impacted by the climate crisis. This situation is exacerbated by pre-existing factors such as poverty, socioeconomic inequality, high population density, and a heavy reliance on natural resources.
The impacts it warns of are: Degradation of the Amazon, loss of Andean glaciers; coral reefs and mangroves, water scarcity, agricultural losses – by the 2050s, nearly 50% of the region's agricultural land will suffer desertification and salinization, alarmingly reducing the yields of staple crops such as corn and beans; cyclones and intense storms, rising sea levels; public health problems, forced migration and displacement.
It also makes an explicit warning about poor adaptation: In cities, building concrete canals that accelerate the flow of water "downstream," instead of retaining it ecologically; on islands, building cement sea walls that end up destroying local coral reefs or eroding neighboring beaches.
Systemic resilience
The proposal made by C40 Cities and McKinsey Sustainability, in the essay "Focused adaptation, A strategic approach to climate adaptation in cities", has been taken and expanded to include the three environmental risk subcategories mentioned above.
First and foremost, urban and rural populations, public and private governments, businesses, and other social agents and actors must be made aware of the environmental risks to which they are exposed; this raises awareness and builds consensus.
1. Risk assessment: preparation of hazard or high environmental risk maps, together with their impact analysis and spatial analysis.
2. Incorporate environmental risks into planning, outlooks, and maintenance plans for critical systems.
3. Development of contingency protocols and early warning systems.
4. Environmental provision and insurance. It is necessary to guarantee the financing of the plans but also to ensure financial alternatives for the recovery of those affected.
5.-Develop specific actions for adaptation to the effects of risks (7-2021, C40 Cities & McKinsey)
Recommendations of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
In report 6 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in chapters 12 and 15, it makes recommendations for the Latin America and Caribbean region, cities and islands of the Caribbean, respectively; only the recommendations are mentioned for reasons of brevity:
Urban Planning and Regulation Systems; Hybrid (Green-Gray) Infrastructure; Consolidation of Informal Settlements; Relocation of High-Risk Families; Crest-to-Reef Approach; Hard Protection Infrastructure and Land Reclamation; Long-Term Planned Relocation; Diversification and Hybrid Security; Integration of Indigenous and Local Knowledge. (20-3-2023, IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, AR6)
One more pause than a close
- Nature is order and chaos; science and technology help, but their scope is limited.
- Our current way of life, hunting mice, has brought the planet to the brink of collapse. Taking scientists' recommendations seriously is common sense; preventing collapse means saving lives, and it is an unavoidable responsibility of the current generations.
- -Those who govern, both the public and private sectors, bear the greatest responsibility.
- -Where should Artificial Intelligence, Data Science, Robotics, Telecommunications, Fintech, Digital Platforms, Internet of Things, Intelligent Systems, Biotechnology, among so many other innovations and advances in applied sciences and technology, be headed?
- -Projects, policies, and investments must consider, beyond the economic aspect, the social, cultural, environmental, and political dimensions in their analyses for their viability and sustainability, where the costs emerge in the medium and long term and for future generations.
