In the previous article, the first part of the reflection began with four questions, all linked to the risks of natural phenomena that scientists are already warning about, but contrary to what one might believe, these are questions directed not only to public governments, but also to private governments, understood as all those people or professionals who must make decisions, knowledgeably lead groups, whatever role they play, whether as a family leader, a company executive, or even at a personal level.
Some risks were listed, which are already known to occur, but it is not known precisely when and with what intensity.
This time, some additional risks are added to complete the picture:
Global Warming and Climate Change
Before we begin, it's important to clarify a few points:
The variation of the planet's climate is natural; it is experienced with day and night, with the annual seasons, with glacial and interglacial periods within the Earth's ice ages.
While, scientifically speaking, some are called meteorological variations or seasonal variations, variations that persist for decades, thousands and millions of years are called "Climate Change," all of them are part of the natural dynamics of the earth due to its cosmic movement.
On the other hand, the greenhouse effect is part of climate change. During interglacial periods, the Earth's orbital movements cause the sun's rays to heat the oceans in the Northern Hemisphere. The oceans release stored CO2, which is then trapped in the atmosphere, creating the greenhouse effect. This effect acts as an amplifier, increasing the temperature. This new temperature then feeds back into the natural process until an equilibrium temperature is reached. As a result, the climate stabilizes, allowing for the development of human life, as it has for the last 11.700 years. We are currently in the interglacial period known as the Holocene.
The current problem is that human action -anthropogenic- has accelerated and intensified this temperature increase, breaking the balance, which in turn intensifies and increases the frequency of natural disasters, threatening to take the world to a point of no return in climate, a new balance that will affect all life on the planet, not only the climate but also the geography.
In three decades, what has changed?
Since the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992, where the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was created, with the first Conference of the Parties (COP) held in Berlin in 1995, with the creation of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, at COP3 and the Paris Agreement in 2015, at COP21, the commitments and actions of the governments of the countries of the world have been set for the reduction of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and for adaptation to the impacts of Climate Change.
Meanwhile, the climate continues to change, trends are accelerating, GHG emissions peaked in 2024, and average global temperatures in 2023 and 2024 reached 1,5°C.
At each meeting, the commitments are readjusted.
In January 2025, the United States announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement to the UN. As of January 27, 2026, it is officially out, repeating the pattern of the Kyoto Protocol, which it signed but never had ratified by the Senate. President Donald Trump began his second term by reversing all the measures taken by the previous administration related to the transition to clean energy.
Everything indicates that the best course of action is to prepare for the impacts of this global change. It could be said that geoeconomic and geopolitical interests are taking precedence over the environment and life on the planet. People will continue to hunt mice; at least, that's the way of life—production and consumption—that the world's leading economies will not change.
And meanwhile, the effects
*.-“In Spain, the flames have ravaged 25.000 hectares west of the capital..
In southwestern France, fire threatens the metropolis of Bordeaux after consuming 42.000 hectares of vegetation…325.000 people have been evacuated” (26-7-2926, Últimas Noticias)
*.-“Global heat stress intensification and
its expanding footprint on the human
population
Global warming is causing more frequent and intense extreme heat waves.”
5.700 billion people worldwide experience at least 90 days of heat stress and 1.800 billion experience at least one day of extreme heat stress. (22-6-2026, Rebecca Emerton et al, Nature Climate Change)
*Heat waves have increased so much that they are now causing more than 500.000 deaths a year…Here in Brazil there are [between] 10.000 and 14.000 deaths a year…” Carlos Nobre (21-7-2026, Interviews, RT in Spanish)
*-In 2025, GHG emissions reached their peak (Ibid)
*-“If [deforestation of the Amazon] reaches between 20% and 25% and we reach 2°C [above the pre-industrial average temperature] we are going to lose between 70% and 77% of the Amazon” Carlos Nobre (Ibid)
Will we have to get used to this kind of news?
33 Global Risks, that's at most
The World Economic Forum (WEF) publishes and presents its 2st edition of the Global Risks Report. This work, which has been underway for more than two decades, is the result of integrating the following: the Global Risks Perception Survey (GPRS), conducted with 1.300 experts from businesses, governments, academia, international organizations, and civil society; the Executive Opinion Survey (EOS), conducted by the World Economic Forum with 11.000 executives from 116 economies to determine the most severe risk they foresee for their country in the next two years; and finally, the perspectives of 161 experts from the WEF's Centers of Expertise, which together form a forward-looking framework and support the analysis of the survey data. (WEF Global Risk Report 2026).
These 33 Risks are ranked by severity for the current year, for the next two years, and for the next ten years.
In the survey question about how they see the future in the short term (2 years) and the long term (10 years), 50% and 57% of respondents, respectively, chose between “Worrying and high risk of global crisis” and “Catastrophic risks are looming globally.”
In the ranking of relevance or severity of the 33 risks for 2026, environmental risks have dropped in position; the first two are Geopolitical: “Geoeconomic Confrontation” and “State-Based Armed Conflict”; the third place is occupied by the natural or environmental risk “Extreme Climate Event”; the other environmental risks occupy positions 13, 14, 21, 24 and 27 and correspond to “Critical Changes in Earth Systems”, “Scarcity of Natural Resources (water and food)”, “Loss of Biodiversity and Collapse of Ecosystems”, “Pollution” and “Natural Disasters not related to Climate”, respectively.
“Environmental concerns are being deprioritized,” the report states.
This opinion in the Report is then nuanced when almost three-quarters of the respondents point to the category of environmental risks, which groups the six environmental risks mentioned above, as turbulent and stormy for the decade 2026-2036.
As a hypothesis:
“Of 33 global risks, 27 are man-made and 6 are from the environment (from nature); 27 are a consequence of their way of life”; humans also contribute to the worsening of environmental risks through their actions.
How much longer can the reality bubbles built in walled cities, in the dimension of Global Online Alternate Reality, last?
Given this scenario, what can be done to avoid imminent collapse?
The answer will be in the next part.
